CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-09-02T16:00:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from the excerpted Forecast Discussion below).
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below).
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Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Sep 03 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period,
a C4 flare at 03/0253 UTC, appeared to originate from a region just
beyond the southeastern limb. Region 2152 (S15W19, Eac/beta-gamma) also
produced a few low level C-class flares during the period. This region
continued to grow, primarily in its intermediate spot area, and show
signs of separation between the leader and trailer spots. Region 2153
(S10W45, Dao/beta) exhibited signs of decay during the period. Region
2154 (S19E29, Cao/beta) continued to show signs of growth, though that
growth rate slowed near the end of the period.

SDO AIA/304 imagery captured a 44 degree long filament, centered near
N32W14, erupting between 02/1300-1600 UTC. The eruption was also evident
in ground-based H-alpha imagery from the GONG facilities. Initial
analysis indicated there is an Earth-directed component of the coronal
mass ejection (CME), set to arrive early to midday on 6 Sep, just
outside this forecast period. Further analysis will be conducted on this
CME and adjustments to the forecast will be made accordingly.
     
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with an increasing chance for
M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days
(03-05 Sep). Regions in the north and south, just beyond the east
limb, have been very active as they approach the visible disk. These
regions, as well as Region 2152, will be monitored closely as they
represent the greatest threat for the next few days.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels,
reaching a peak flux value of 6110 pfu at 02/1620 UTC. The greater
than 10 MeV and 100 MeV proton flux values were elevated in response to
yesterday's back-side event, but remained below alert thresholds.
Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level
of 3 pfu at 03/0845Z, while 100 MeV protons reached a max of .7 pfu at
02/2210 UTC.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high
levels for the next three days (03-05 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain enhanced, but below alert threshold
levels (S1-Minor) for the next three days (03-05 Sep) in the absence of
another significant flare.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft remained fairly
consistent throughout the period. Wind speed averaged near 420 km/s
range, Phi remained positive, and Bt held steady near 6 nT. Bz ranged
between +/-5 nT, but was predominantly negative during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the next
three days (03-05 Sep). Solar wind speeds are likely to see steadily
decreasing values as the high speed stream influence continues to wane.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated
minor storm levels observed at high latitudes.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels
(Below G1-Minor) through midday on day one (03 Sep). Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected, with a chance for Active levels for days two
and three (04-05 Sep), as high speed solar wind stream influences
persist.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Sep 05 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 05-Sep 07 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 05-Sep 07 2014

            Sep 05     Sep 06     Sep 07
00-03UT        3          3          4     
03-06UT        2          3          3     
06-09UT        2          3          3     
09-12UT        2          3          2     
12-15UT        3          3          2     
15-18UT        3          3          3     
18-21UT        3          4          3     
21-00UT        3          4          3     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 05-Sep 07 2014

              Sep 05  Sep 06  Sep 07
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 05-Sep 07 2014

              Sep 05        Sep 06        Sep 07
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely with a
slight chance for R3 (Major) for the next three days due to potential
flare activity from Regions 2152 (S15W38), 2157 (S13E68) and 2158
(N16E83).

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